Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 3027 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 14:14	SEA 15:31	15%	6%	0.5%	81%
AS 3423 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 06:11	SEA 07:06	18%	10%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IDA 13:00 → SLC 14:14DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	6h 33m	100%	77%
United Details →	IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 20:51 → SEA 22:41UA 2767	7h 27m	98%	75%
United Details →	IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:08UA 2058	7h 08m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	4h 02m	91%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON