Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4794 at 13:13 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day YX 4794 ILM 13:13 → BOS 15:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1290 ILM 16:30 → BOS 18:34 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4794 Republic	ILM 13:13	BOS 15:38	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 4786 Republic	ILM 13:58	BOS 16:10	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
B6 1290 JetBlue Flight history →	ILM 16:30	BOS 18:34	24%	10%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON