Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: OH 5272 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day OH 5272 ILM 06:17 → CLT 07:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2105 ILM 19:05 → CLT 20:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5272 PSA	ILM 06:17	CLT 07:26	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2695 American Flight history →	ILM 08:03	CLT 09:22	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 2960 American Flight history →	ILM 08:21	CLT 09:43	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2413 American	ILM 15:16	CLT 16:29	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2105 American Flight history →	ILM 19:05	CLT 20:12	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 12:59	CLT 14:20	17%	12%	1.6%	83%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 18:06	CLT 19:29	32%	22%	1.4%	68%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 16:15	CLT 17:38	42%	21%	0.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON