Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4790 at 10:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 4790 ILM 10:33 → DCA 11:59 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5133 ILM 19:43 → DCA 21:12 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4790 Republic	ILM 10:33	DCA 11:59	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4784 Republic	ILM 10:57	DCA 12:22	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5313 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 15:40	DCA 17:24	15%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 5133 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 19:43	DCA 21:12	20%	9%	0.9%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON