Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4483 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day YX 4483 ILM 06:00 → LGA 07:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4404 ILM 17:21 → LGA 19:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4483 Republic	ILM 06:00	LGA 07:48	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 5237 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 06:52	LGA 08:35	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
YX 4401 Republic	ILM 11:07	LGA 12:55	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5186 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 11:21	LGA 13:04	15%	3%	0.8%	76%
DL 5212 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 17:12	LGA 18:56	22%	7%	0.8%	68%
YX 4404 Republic	ILM 17:21	LGA 19:11	22%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON