Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3105 IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1901 IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3105 Delta Flight history →	IND 05:55	ATL 07:30	3%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	IND 11:38	ATL 13:17	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	IND 10:07	ATL 11:43	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 9974 Delta	IND 12:11	ATL 13:58	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 3106 Delta Flight history →	IND 06:55	ATL 08:36	5%	2%	0.8%	92%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	IND 13:41	ATL 15:20	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 1814 Delta	IND 17:13	ATL 19:02	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	IND 18:25	ATL 20:04	6%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1901 Delta Flight history →	IND 08:05	ATL 09:41	7%	2%	0.8%	96%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON