Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 1–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2901 IND 05:52 → AUS 07:30 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1554 IND 16:23 → AUS 17:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2901 Southwest	IND 05:52	AUS 07:30	1%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3153 Southwest	IND 06:04	AUS 07:26	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2643 Southwest	IND 10:49	AUS 12:17	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4015 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 07:25	AUS 09:03	4%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 18:30	AUS 20:14	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 1554 Southwest	IND 16:23	AUS 17:49	10%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON