Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5631 IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YX 5623 IND 17:54 → BOS 20:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5631 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:45	BOS 09:10	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
YX 4408 Republic	IND 08:42	BOS 11:15	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4726 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 20:46	BOS 23:31	5%	3%	0.6%	70%
YX 4405 Republic	IND 15:49	BOS 18:27	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 5623 Republic	IND 17:54	BOS 20:34	8%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON