Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2938 IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 586 IND 18:55 → CLT 20:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2938 American Flight history →	IND 06:42	CLT 08:25	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 846 American	IND 08:04	CLT 09:51	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 346 American Flight history →	IND 10:39	CLT 12:16	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1589 American Flight history →	IND 14:58	CLT 16:43	10%	2%	0.6%	79%
AA 586 American	IND 18:55	CLT 20:33	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON