Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1623 IND 06:27 → DEN 07:11 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1229 IND 18:44 → DEN 19:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1623 Southwest	IND 06:27	DEN 07:11	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1607 United Flight history →	IND 08:00	DEN 08:51	6%	2%	0.5%	84%
WN 403 Southwest	IND 14:00	DEN 14:41	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2058 Southwest	IND 19:00	DEN 19:47	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2345 Frontier Flight history →	IND 15:59	DEN 16:55	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 377 United Flight history →	IND 15:33	DEN 16:27	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 1229 United	IND 18:44	DEN 19:33	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON