Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2782 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 2782 IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2456 IND 17:15 → DFW 18:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2782 American Flight history →	IND 06:01	DFW 07:35	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 1296 American Flight history →	IND 07:20	DFW 08:50	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1506 American Flight history →	IND 11:03	DFW 12:17	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 3312 American	IND 14:11	DFW 15:27	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2456 American Flight history →	IND 17:15	DFW 18:35	15%	5%	0.6%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON