Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3567 IND 07:05 → EWR 09:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 3571 IND 18:55 → EWR 21:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3567 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:05	EWR 09:11	4%	1%	0.7%	92%
UA 3451 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:05	EWR 11:11	4%	1%	0.7%	95%
YX 3666 Republic	IND 10:43	EWR 13:02	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 3677 Republic	IND 11:55	EWR 14:03	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3667 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 15:53	EWR 18:13	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 3571 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:55	EWR 21:10	10%	3%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON