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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1799 Delta IND 16:48 LAX 18:18 8% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 598 American Flight history → IND 07:00 LAX 08:27 11% 3% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa 2h 12m Dulles IAD 09:31 → LAX 12:10UA 657 9h 35m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 9h 23m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 07m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic 1h 15m Dulles IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 8h 31m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29AA 4631 · flown by Republic 1h 31m New York JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3 9h 48m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 11:59 → LAX 13:50AA 2005 10h 08m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → IND 12:28 → JFK 14:49AA 4592 · flown by Republic 2h 11m New York JFK 17:00 → LAX 20:19AA 306 10h 51m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor 3h 47m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 9h 48m 98% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON