Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5737 IND 06:08 → LGA 08:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 5646 IND 17:55 → LGA 20:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5737 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:08	LGA 08:30	3%	1%	0.7%	92%
AA 4601 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:01	LGA 08:23	3%	1%	0.7%	71%
AA 4365 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:45	LGA 10:58	6%	2%	0.7%	100%
AA 4565 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:11	LGA 14:38	6%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 5660 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:05	LGA 10:12	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 14:46	LGA 16:57	8%	2%	0.7%	84%
YX 4409 Republic	IND 17:12	LGA 20:05	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:55	LGA 20:11	11%	3%	0.7%	72%
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 11:10	LGA 13:14	24%	4%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON