Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2285 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2285 IND 06:38 → MCO 09:04 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2069 IND 14:57 → MCO 17:07 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 3% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2285 Southwest	IND 06:38	MCO 09:04	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2298 Southwest	IND 11:25	MCO 13:34	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
F9 3762 Frontier Flight history →	IND 11:15	MCO 13:35	8%	5%	1.8%	84%
WN 2069 Southwest	IND 14:57	MCO 17:07	19%	6%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON