Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 2308 at 06:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2308 American Flight history →	IND 06:00	MIA 08:50	5%	2%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 02m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 07m	99%	88%
American Details →	IND 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4626 · flown by Republic	1h 23m Washington	DCA 09:13 → MIA 12:07AA 401	6h 07m	99%	88%
American Details →	IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 29m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IND 06:41 → DTW 07:55DL 5470 · flown by Endeavor	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 47m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → MIA 13:26DL 793	6h 26m	96%	87%
American Details →	IND 06:41 → ORD 07:05AA 4557 · flown by Republic	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → MIA 12:45AA 1250	6h 04m	99%	87%
American Details →	IND 05:43 → PHL 07:51AA 4613 · flown by Republic	2h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 09:52 → MIA 12:57AA 1985	7h 14m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON