Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:13 pm at Indianapolis); 10 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Today: YX 3527 at 15:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–26%.

Safest bet today YX 3527 IND 15:01 → ORD 15:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 630 IND 13:00 → ORD 13:11 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 3527 Republic	IND 15:01	ORD 15:30	9%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 15:16	ORD 15:45	9%	3%	0.4%	84%
YX 4454 Republic	IND 14:28	ORD 14:44	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 3657 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:44	ORD 19:11	14%	3%	0.5%	76%
UA 2632 United	IND 13:47	ORD 14:12	16%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 1087 United	IND 16:53	ORD 17:18	18%	6%	0.3%	no record
OO 5014 SkyWest	IND 12:43	ORD 13:07	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 548 United	IND 13:23	ORD 13:40	20%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2418 American	IND 20:59	ORD 21:24	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 3053 American	IND 20:58	ORD 21:20	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 630 American	IND 13:00	ORD 13:11	28%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON