Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4613 IND 05:43 → PHL 07:50 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 5592 IND 16:49 → PHL 18:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4613 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 05:43	PHL 07:50	2%	1%	0.6%	95%
YX 4683 Republic	IND 08:27	PHL 10:40	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 13:36	PHL 15:37	5%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 1436 American	IND 10:55	PHL 13:00	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2847 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	PHL 08:55	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 5592 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 16:49	PHL 18:53	7%	4%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON