tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → IND 14:20 RDU 16:10 5% 3% 0.6% 76%
9E 5281 Endeavor IND 15:10 RDU 17:00 6% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → IND 06:41 → ORD 07:07AA 4557 · flown by Republic 2h 51m Chicago ORD 09:58 → RDU 13:08AA 4354 · flown by Republic 6h 27m 100% 95%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052 5h 40m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 47m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 25m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 6h 13m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:06 → ORD 07:32UA 3483 · flown by Republic 3h 16m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 6h 55m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29AA 4631 · flown by Republic 3h 30m New York JFK 12:59 → RDU 14:57AA 4658 · flown by Republic 7h 47m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521 6h 51m 98% 92%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON