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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 2h 26m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 3h 49m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 24m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → IND 07:12 → DEN 07:52WN 2787 1h 33m Denver DEN 09:25 → SAN 10:52WN 1657 6h 40m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 13m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → SAN 11:43DL 843 8h 48m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 13m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAN 17:20DL 924 10h 13m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor 3h 30m Detroit DTW 12:33 → SAN 14:26DL 761 9h 39m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IND 10:30 → DTW 11:45DL 4875 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 12:33 → SAN 14:26DL 761 6h 56m 68% 60%
DeltaDetails → IND 17:15 → JFK 19:39DL 4984 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 20:29 → SAN 23:43DL 685 9h 28m 72% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON