Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	IND 17:19	SEA 19:09	14%	3%	0.7%	71%
AS 625 Alaska Flight history →	IND 07:04	SEA 08:52	16%	2%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	IND 07:25 → AUS 09:03DL 4015 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Austin	AUS 11:14 → SEA 13:45DL 1684	9h 20m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 55m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	7h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 19:27 → MSP 20:20DL 1456	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	7h 31m	98%	90%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 13:08 → SEA 16:00UA 1824	8h 49m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 42m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10DL 5631 · flown by Republic	2h 19m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 05m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON