tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 500 United Flight history → IND 07:43 SFO 09:25 9% 3% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa 2h 13m Dulles IAD 09:32 → SFO 12:05UA 1773 9h 30m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 27m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → IND 12:28 → JFK 14:49AA 4592 · flown by Republic 1h 41m New York JFK 16:30 → SFO 20:05AA 15 10h 37m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Chicago ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 7h 19m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29AA 4631 · flown by Republic 1h 00m New York JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149 9h 44m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672 9h 57m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 09m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 7h 54m 99% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IND 17:15 → DFW 18:35AA 2456 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10AA 1430 6h 55m 67% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON