Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2081 at 10:29, 12%.

Safest bet that day WN 2081 ISP 10:29 → MCO 13:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 547 ISP 16:24 → MCO 19:21 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2081 Southwest	ISP 10:29	MCO 13:11	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
F9 2149 Frontier Flight history →	ISP 17:39	MCO 20:40	23%	13%	5.1%	77%
WN 2140 Southwest	ISP 16:20	MCO 19:12	31%	12%	1.8%	no record
B6 547 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 16:24	MCO 19:21	35%	16%	1.8%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON