Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:05 pm at Hilo); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 16:47, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40AS 1081	3h 20m Honolulu	HNL 21:00 → OGG 21:51AS 1226	5h 04m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	ITO 15:45 → HNL 16:39AS 1071	2h 53m Honolulu	HNL 19:32 → OGG 20:25AS 1196	4h 40m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	ITO 18:18 → HNL 19:26AS 1101	1h 36m Honolulu	HNL 21:02 → OGG 21:55AS 1206	3h 37m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON