Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5543 JAC 10:34 → DEN 12:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2132 JAC 16:31 → DEN 18:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5543 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 10:34	DEN 12:09	5%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 1978 United Flight history →	JAC 07:00	DEN 08:40	7%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 1717 United Flight history →	JAC 13:42	DEN 15:18	9%	5%	0.5%	80%
UA 2791 United Flight history →	JAC 14:44	DEN 16:21	11%	6%	0.5%	65%
UA 2132 United	JAC 16:31	DEN 18:04	12%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON