tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 13:42, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 58m Denver DEN 18:16 → EWR 00:16 +1UA 2613 8h 34m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233 8h 31m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 09m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:41 → DEN 12:17UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 8h 48m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:02 → ORD 12:06UA 2032 3h 18m Chicago ORD 15:24 → EWR 18:43UA 1236 8h 41m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340 7h 18m 92% 76%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:40 → DFW 15:25AA 3052 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:25 → EWR 22:58AA 618 9h 18m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → JAC 10:53 → CLT 16:39AA 1049 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794 9h 19m 98% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON