Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 6471 at 13:41, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 6471 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 13:41	LAX 15:08	9%	5%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	5h 47m	100%	91%
United Details →	JAC 10:34 → DEN 12:09UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Denver	DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195	7h 41m	100%	89%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	3h 05m Denver	DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013	7h 17m	99%	89%
United Details →	JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717	2h 27m Denver	DEN 17:45 → LAX 19:23UA 1753	6h 41m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	5h 52m	98%	84%
United Details →	JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791	3h 23m Denver	DEN 19:44 → LAX 21:12UA 1460	7h 28m	98%	83%
American Details →	JAC 11:38 → DFW 15:23AA 3052	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:41 → LAX 19:03AA 2125	8h 25m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON