Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2458 at 12:14 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2458 JAC 12:14 → ORD 16:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1448 JAC 15:34 → ORD 19:35 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2458 United	JAC 12:14	ORD 16:21	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2032 United Flight history →	JAC 07:30	ORD 11:40	18%	7%	0.8%	84%
AA 1449 American	JAC 13:43	ORD 17:50	23%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 1448 American	JAC 15:34	ORD 19:35	24%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON