Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2722 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2722 JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1549 JAX 19:40 → ATL 21:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2722 Delta Flight history →	JAX 05:30	ATL 06:42	4%	2%	1.6%	93%
DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	JAX 09:41	ATL 10:54	6%	2%	1.2%	91%
DL 2450 Delta Flight history →	JAX 07:00	ATL 08:15	7%	2%	1.3%	92%
DL 2569 Delta Flight history →	JAX 08:17	ATL 09:34	8%	2%	1.3%	91%
DL 2326 Delta Flight history →	JAX 10:41	ATL 11:54	8%	3%	1.2%	89%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	JAX 14:50	ATL 16:06	11%	3%	3.6%	82%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	JAX 13:05	ATL 14:15	11%	3%	3.6%	85%
DL 9939 Delta	JAX 15:56	ATL 17:12	11%	3%	6.8%	no record
DL 2440 Delta Flight history →	JAX 18:55	ATL 20:13	13%	4%	7.3%	94%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	JAX 16:14	ATL 17:32	13%	3%	7.0%	80%
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	JAX 17:40	ATL 19:00	13%	4%	7.3%	79%
F9 1549 Frontier Flight history →	JAX 19:40	ATL 21:11	25%	12%	19.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON