tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1876 Southwest JAX 10:59 AUS 12:47 10% 2% 1.3% no record
DL 3772 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → JAX 14:31 AUS 16:25 17% 5% 6.2% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976 4h 57m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:20 → IAD 11:16UA 1434 1h 54m Dulles IAD 13:10 → AUS 15:37UA 2746 7h 17m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 5h 03m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → JAX 06:05 → ATL 07:18DL 2440 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 20m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 09m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 7h 38m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453 3h 36m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 7h 07m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAX 18:20 → ORD 19:58AA 3486 · flown by Envoy 1h 18m Chicago ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935 6h 39m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON