Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5597 at 12:24 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 5597 JAX 12:24 → BOS 15:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest B6 810 JAX 16:44 → BOS 19:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 12:24	BOS 15:15	15%	5%	3.2%	77%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 19:25	BOS 22:22	16%	6%	11.3%	73%
B6 1310 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 10:46	BOS 13:26	16%	4%	2.6%	73%
B6 810 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 16:44	BOS 19:35	28%	8%	10.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON