Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2213 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2213 JAX 08:10 → BWI 10:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2096 JAX 16:30 → BWI 18:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2213 Southwest	JAX 08:10	BWI 10:16	6%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4105 Southwest	JAX 08:13	BWI 10:17	6%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1783 Southwest	JAX 13:33	BWI 15:30	13%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 2096 Southwest	JAX 16:30	BWI 18:25	20%	4%	3.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON