Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3116 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3116 JAX 05:56 → CLT 07:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1462 JAX 14:45 → CLT 16:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3116 American	JAX 05:56	CLT 07:29	6%	2%	1.6%	no record
AA 1834 American Flight history →	JAX 06:18	CLT 07:45	7%	3%	1.8%	92%
YX 5878 Republic	JAX 06:48	CLT 08:23	8%	2%	2.1%	no record
AA 1925 American Flight history →	JAX 13:00	CLT 14:30	12%	3%	15.7%	70%
AA 1462 American	JAX 14:45	CLT 16:12	18%	4%	19.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON