Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: MQ 3731 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3731 JAX 06:03 → DCA 08:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1463 JAX 19:41 → DCA 21:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3731 Envoy	JAX 06:03	DCA 08:08	8%	2%	1.8%	no record
AA 949 American Flight history →	JAX 11:49	DCA 13:44	13%	5%	2.2%	89%
AA 1463 American Flight history →	JAX 19:41	DCA 21:45	25%	6%	17.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON