Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 671 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 671 JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4749 JAX 14:00 → DEN 15:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 671 United Flight history →	JAX 08:09	DEN 09:55	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
WN 1885 Southwest	JAX 08:54	DEN 10:36	13%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 2014 United	JAX 15:00	DEN 16:45	15%	4%	3.2%	no record
WN 4749 Southwest	JAX 14:00	DEN 15:37	18%	3%	2.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706	5h 19m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 19m	91%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON