Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1171 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1171 JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1472 JAX 17:03 → DFW 18:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1171 American Flight history →	JAX 07:24	DFW 09:12	6%	3%	1.8%	90%
AA 2789 American Flight history →	JAX 09:13	DFW 10:59	10%	3%	1.8%	91%
AA 1061 American Flight history →	JAX 11:57	DFW 13:39	12%	4%	2.3%	80%
AA 2329 American	JAX 13:38	DFW 15:14	19%	5%	5.3%	no record
AA 1472 American	JAX 17:03	DFW 18:39	27%	5%	7.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON