Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	JAX 11:47	DTW 14:08	6%	3%	1.0%	90%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	JAX 18:22	DTW 20:45	13%	4%	5.3%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → DTW 10:17DL 643	4h 47m	98%	90%
American Details →	JAX 06:40 → ORD 08:28AA 764	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → DTW 12:44AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 04m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 46m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	JAX 06:05 → ATL 07:24DL 2440	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → DTW 10:38DL 2084	4h 33m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	6h 01m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:29 → JFK 09:45DL 4959 · flown by Endeavor	3h 15m New York	JFK 13:00 → DTW 14:49DL 1885	7h 20m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 08m	97%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAX 18:20 → ORD 19:58AA 3486 · flown by Envoy	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:08 → DTW 23:22AA 4012 · flown by Envoy	5h 02m	73%	61%
JetBlue Details →	JAX 16:44 → BOS 19:35B6 810	58m Boston	BOS 20:33 → DTW 22:45B6 1337	6h 01m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON