Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: B6 17 at 07:16, 9%.

Safest bet that day B6 17 JAX 07:16 → FLL 08:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest MX 1713 JAX 15:23 → FLL 16:34 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 17 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 07:16	FLL 08:44	9%	3%	1.3%	91%
B6 2117 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 15:29	FLL 17:06	40%	10%	5.3%	89%worse than usual
MX 1713 Breeze	JAX 15:23	FLL 16:34	40%	6%	6.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON