Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 15m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 41m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:57 → HOU 14:07DL 1195	6h 50m	99%	87%
American Details →	JAX 13:49 → DFW 15:35AA 687	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 15m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 37m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	JAX 13:30 → BWI 15:36WN 2496	2h 18m Baltimore	BWI 17:54 → HOU 19:56WN 4640	7h 26m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON