Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2453 JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 3859 JAX 11:15 → IAH 12:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2453 United Flight history →	JAX 07:05	IAH 08:29	8%	3%	1.3%	94%
UA 3859 United	JAX 11:15	IAH 12:45	9%	3%	2.1%	no record
UA 4039 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 11:37	IAH 13:11	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
UA 4047 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 16:23	IAH 17:58	12%	6%	0.0%	88%
UA 6224 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 09:20	IAH 10:54	18%	10%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON