Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1035 at 17:50, 20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1035 JAX 17:50 → JFK 20:27 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time Riskiest B6 678 JAX 19:03 → JFK 21:28 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1035 Delta Flight history →	JAX 17:50	JFK 20:27	20%	8%	5.3%	49%
B6 478 JetBlue	JAX 15:09	JFK 17:37	20%	6%	6.8%	no record
B6 678 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 19:03	JFK 21:28	23%	8%	7.3%	74%
DL 4959 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 07:05	JFK 09:29	10%	4%	3.2%	90%
DL 5483 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 12:09	JFK 14:48	20%	9%	5.9%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON