Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, YX 5633 at 11:27, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5633 JAX 11:27 → LGA 13:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5633 Republic	JAX 11:27	LGA 13:58	6%	4%	2.7%	no record
DL 5461 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 15:59	LGA 18:28	39%	17%	9.1%	61%
DL 5471 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 18:59	LGA 21:29	50%	32%	6.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON