Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 981 at 17:19, 24%.

Nonstops that day


WN 981 Southwest	JAX 17:19	MDW 18:43	24%	3%	7.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 35m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	5h 56m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 34m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 01m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333	3h 59m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	7h 42m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON