Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2711 at 07:42, 7%.

Safest bet that day AA 2711 JAX 07:42 → MIA 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest MQ 4023 JAX 19:30 → MIA 20:55 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2711 American Flight history →	JAX 07:42	MIA 09:16	7%	3%	1.2%	93%
MQ 4024 Envoy	JAX 10:00	MIA 11:36	14%	5%	2.1%	no record
MQ 3342 Envoy	JAX 15:42	MIA 17:08	41%	12%	11.2%	no record
MQ 4023 Envoy	JAX 19:30	MIA 20:55	41%	14%	18.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON