Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 764 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 764 JAX 06:39 → ORD 08:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3486 JAX 18:20 → ORD 19:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 764 American Flight history →	JAX 06:39	ORD 08:15	7%	2%	1.3%	81%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	JAX 09:19	ORD 11:06	10%	2%	1.3%	82%
OO 5258 SkyWest	JAX 07:02	ORD 09:00	11%	3%	1.9%	no record
OO 5401 SkyWest	JAX 12:36	ORD 14:25	20%	6%	5.3%	no record
UA 2211 United Flight history →	JAX 16:55	ORD 18:48	26%	5%	11.3%	70%
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 18:20	ORD 19:58	28%	6%	11.2%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON