Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1819 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1819 JAX 07:00 → PHL 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5060 JAX 16:36 → PHL 18:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1819 American	JAX 07:00	PHL 09:27	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 384 American	JAX 07:05	PHL 09:28	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 709 American Flight history →	JAX 09:47	PHL 12:00	8%	4%	1.2%	91%
OH 5060 PSA	JAX 16:36	PHL 18:58	18%	5%	5.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON