tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2858 American Flight history → JAX 08:00 PHX 09:21 10% 4% 0.9% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 3h 52m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 9h 38m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 31m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 09:47 → PHX 10:40DL 1053 6h 40m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → JAX 06:05 → ATL 07:23DL 2440 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 58m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:05 → CLT 07:32AA 548 2h 09m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 7h 59m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → JAX 12:20 → IAD 14:25UA 1938 3h 25m Dulles IAD 17:50 → PHX 19:46UA 1938 10h 26m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa 3h 30m Houston IAH 16:41 → PHX 17:52UA 1478 9h 15m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 01m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAX 18:20 → ORD 19:58AA 3486 · flown by Envoy 50m Chicago ORD 20:48 → PHX 22:53AA 3277 7h 33m 64% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON