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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Miami, leaving 07:08, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → JAX 07:08 → MIA 08:34AA 3140 3h 05m Miami MIA 11:39 → SJU 14:24AA 1613 7h 16m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 3h 18m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 32m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 22m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 8h 02m 99% 84%
JetBlueDetails → JAX 07:16 → FLL 08:47B6 17 1h 23m Fort Lauderdale FLL 10:10 → SJU 12:48B6 1553 5h 32m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861 7h 40m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:03 → CLT 07:30AA 548 53m Charlotte CLT 08:23 → SJU 12:13AA 3187 6h 10m 92% 81%
SouthwestDetails → JAX 13:30 → BWI 15:36WN 2496 2h 21m Baltimore BWI 17:57 → SJU 22:13WN 1090 8h 43m 100% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON