tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2221 Southwest JAX 06:10 STL 07:27 4% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 753 Southwest JAX 06:05 STL 07:15 4% 1% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 07:43 → STL 08:19DL 1571 3h 49m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333 2h 37m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 6h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → JAX 06:05 → ATL 07:24DL 2440 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 38m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 6h 11m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → STL 19:58DL 2833 6h 08m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:38 → ORD 11:28UA 1239 2h 52m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 7h 08m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 5h 48m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:40 → ORD 08:28AA 764 3h 27m Chicago ORD 11:55 → STL 13:19AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON