Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Portland, leaving 09:53, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	JFK 09:53 → PDX 12:50AS 19	2h 11m Portland	PDX 15:01 → ANC 18:00AS 315	12h 07m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 17:24 → ANC 20:18DL 2367	12h 48m	99%	86%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:11 → ANC 19:35AA 399	15h 20m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	13h 25m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 19:12 → ANC 21:59AS 1438	12h 59m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 22:55 → ANC 01:40 +1AS 205	13h 11m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 12:57 → ANC 15:47AS 1434	12h 47m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON